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Data from XG Online results

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 8:10 p.m.

In Response To: How well would a bot do in a human tournament? (Timothy Chow)

To add to the discussion here are some data collected on GammonSite based on XG-Coach/Champion [3-ply red] results on 37,000 11 point match . The data is pretty old (2008) and since then XG is probably 50 Elo point stronger.

I'll spare you the details but it appears that the difference between theoretical win ratio and actual win ratio is 0.6% per 100 Elo

For for instance at 200 Elo difference, the Elo formula says the bot should win 68.22% but it actually wins only 67.02%.

67.02% is equivalent to a 186 Elo performance so the Bot loses 14 Elo due to its inability to take advantage of weaker player.

For 400 Elo weaker opponent, the performance lost is 41 Elo.

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