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Data from XG Online results

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 8:27 p.m.

In Response To: Data from XG Online results (eXtreme Gammon)

"For for instance at 200 Elo difference, the Elo formula says the bot should win 68.22% but it actually wins only 67.02%.

67.02% is equivalent to a 186 Elo performance so the Bot loses 14 Elo due to its inability to take advantage of weaker player."

That conclusion assumes that the ELO formula remains accurate over a wide range of ability levels. For regular players the actual win % for a 200 ELO difference is relevant. There is also the problem though that players might not be rated at their "true" ELO rating either due to variability, or not having reached the true level yet.

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