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Here's a RO with better settings and an explanation of why the play is so clear

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 3:09 p.m.

In Response To: Why use crappy settings for RO? *NM* (neilkaz)

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 91 7 point match pip: 124 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBB-A----A---AccbbcBa-:1:1:1:22:0:2:0:7:10
to play 22

1.	Rollout1	17/15 13/7	eq: +0.514
	Player: Opponent: 58.11% (G:8.86% B:0.53%) 41.89% (G:17.39% B:1.47%) Conf: ± 0.015 (+0.499...+0.529) Duration: 44.1 seconds
2.	Rollout1	17/11 8/6	eq: +0.317 (-0.198)
	Player: Opponent: 52.56% (G:6.91% B:0.33%) 47.44% (G:11.25% B:0.73%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.305...+0.329) Duration: 34.3 seconds
3.	Rollout1	13/7 8/6	eq: +0.176 (-0.338)
	Player: Opponent: 50.08% (G:6.95% B:0.38%) 49.92% (G:17.17% B:1.00%) Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.163...+0.189) Duration: 36.5 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 8782117 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Gammonphobia causes all sorts of soft plays to be made. Here, looking at the results we see that we win 5.5% more games by slotting and 2% more gammons, while losing 6% more gammons. So slotting should be very clear. However, there's more to it than that since we have a scored based recube anytime Black doesn't throw an immediate 6! Also look how bad playing 8/6 is after slotting!! That's bcuz the real threat here is to prime and let Black's board collapse rather than trying to blitz and then hop two checkers over a 5 prime.

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 88 7 point match pip: 116 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-aBBBBBAA------A--bdbbbBb-:1:1:1:00:0:2:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	67.24% (G: 8.94% B: 0.40%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.76% (G: 8.75% B: 0.52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	68.26% (G: 8.49% B: 0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.74% (G: 10.25% B: 1.24%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.351
Redouble:	+0.939
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.600 (-0.290)
Redouble/Take:	+0.889
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.111)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 8782117 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.009 (+0.591...+0.608)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.017 (+0.873...+0.906)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• XG charged me with a double whopper
  joe freedman -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 12:50 p.m.
  • XG charged me with a double whopper
    Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 2:02 p.m.
  • XG charged me with a double whopper
    neilkaz -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 3:15 p.m.
  • XG charged me with a double whopper
    Keene -- Friday, 17 September 2010, at 7:11 p.m.
  • XG charged me with a double whopper
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 18 September 2010, at 1:54 a.m.
    • XG charged me with a double whopper (RO)
      joe freedman -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 2:39 p.m.
      • Why use crappy settings for RO? *NM*
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 3:00 p.m.
        • Here's a RO with better settings and an explanation of why the play is so clear
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 3:09 p.m.
          • Here's a RO with better settings and an explanation of why the play is so clear
            Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 6:44 p.m.
            • Here's a RO with better settings and an explanation of why the play is so clear
              neilkaz -- Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 8:37 p.m.