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BGonline.org Forums
Computer roshambo
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: How well would a bot do in a human tournament? (eXtreme Gammon)
Date: Sunday, 19 September 2010, at 6:31 p.m.
In terms of how much one can gain out of exploiting weak opponents, you may wish to Google "computer roshambo." In roshambo, also known as rock-paper-scissors, you might think that a clever opponent cannot do much better against a weak player than a purely random bot can. But this is demonstrably false. It is possible to do a LOT better than 50% against a weak opponent. This is obvious for extremely weak opponents (rock, rock, rock, rock, rock, ...) but holds true even for not-so-obviously weak opponents. If this is possible in such a simple game, imagine the theoretical possibilities for more complicated games.
In backgammon, or even in chess, we're not at the stage yet where a bot or even a human is pushing the limits of learning and exploiting a particular opponent's weaknesses. People talk about "God's algorithm," but a truly omniscient god (let's assume that the god does not have any control over your brain or the dice but only full knowledge of your brain, as well as of course the game tree) would know exactly what blunders you would make in all hypothetical circumstances and would certainly do much, much better against you than a so-called "perfect player" would.
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