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Rollout

Posted By: Stanley E. Richards
Date: Monday, 20 September 2010, at 6:23 a.m.

In Response To: Ain't got a whole lot going - but is it enuf? (christian munk-christensen)

Take confidence is only 66%. But, it is apparent that it is reasonable to take or drop this cube.

Stanley





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 136
5 point match
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-bD-C---bC--bbAcbbB---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
White on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 72.80% (G: 16.17% B: 0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27.20% (G: 4.49% B: 0.26%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 73.56% (G: 16.17% B: 0.63%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.44% (G: 4.49% B: 0.35%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.567
Double:+1.198
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.906 (-0.090)
Double/Take:+0.997
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.003)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.011 (+0.895...+0.918)
Confidence Double: ± 0.015 (+0.981...+1.012)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 66.5%
Duration: 2 hours 33 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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