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Cube action in post coup classic position?

Posted By: Kye Hedlund
Date: Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:40 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action in post coup classic position? (John O'Hagan)

Can't this be evaluated quantitatively (a la Trice) as a rolls vs. pips position?

W needs 34 pips + wasteage

If B's 5pt checker were on the 3pt, she would have a 5 roll position roughly equivalent to 7*5 + 1 = 36 pips. Since the checker is actually on the 5pt, she has a 6 roll position (7*6 + 1 = 43 pips) if she rolls a 4 before rolling a 5 or 6. Estimate this by the chances that B misses on next roll. She can roll 43, 42 or 41 for 6 rolls or probability 1/6 of missing. So B needs about

5/6 * 36 + 1/6 * 43 = 30 + 7 = 37 pips

with an estimate of W's wasteage (which I do not know), we have numbers for a pips vs. pips doubling decision. Do we need a more accurate estimate of the pip-cost of B's misses? 1 pip penalty seems low.

In any case, making a quantitative assessment may be better than a "feels like" approach.

--- Kye

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