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BGonline.org Forums
Cube action in post coup classic position?
Posted By: Tom Keith In Response To: Cube action in post coup classic position? (Kye Hedlund)
Date: Monday, 20 September 2010, at 4:59 p.m.
Do we need a more accurate estimate of the pip-cost of B's misses? 1 pip penalty seems low.
Agreed, 1 pip penalty seems low.
A pure 5-roll position is EPC 36. But black misses immediately on 4-3, 4-2, and 4-1. And he has an even number of checkers, so each miss costs a full roll (8.17 pips). 8.17 x 6/36 = about 1.4 pips already. Further, the n-roll formula assumes all doubles get four checkers off. We know that 1-1, 2-2, 3-3, and 4-4 miss immediately and there will be more doubles that miss later.
So I think you have to add at least 2 pips, perhaps more, to the pure n-roll number.
36 + 2.5(?) = 38.5 for black's EPC?
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