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Cube action in post coup classic position?
Posted By: Bob Koca In Response To: Cube action in post coup classic position? (John O'Hagan)
Date: Monday, 20 September 2010, at 9:22 p.m.
Trice count for white is about actual count plus 5.2 giving 39.2 here (Boot Camp material).
If it were known that black will roll a 5 or 6 before or concurrent with a 4 then have close to a 5 roll position (about 36 EPC but I will call it 36.5 due to possible misses with doubles) and if not then extremely close (the missing 4 leaves you odd) to a 6 roll position with EPC of 43.
Immediately there are 7 such rolls with a 4. The miss might happen later if the first roll is only 1,2,3s. That happens a 4th of the time and then again about 7 such rolls. Misses later on are getting very unlikely. So I estimate about 2 extra games due to later missing 4. 9 games out of 36 is 1/4th of time get that bad 4.
Interpolating 1/4th of the way from 36.5 to 43 puts it about 38.1.
Again from Boot Camp, recall that in rolls vs. pips positions that last cash is down 0 for 3 roll, down 1 for 4 rolls, down 2 for 5 rolls, down 3 for 6 rolls... The last double is 2 pips better than that and last redouble is 1 pip better.
Those values though are the last cashes rounded down to whole numbers. It may be somewhere between 2 and 2.5 for 6 rolls for example. The position is slightly worse than a 5 roll position so I estimate that last take is from 2.25 to 2.75 pips and last recube is with 1.25 to 1.75 pip lead. Here you are up 1.1 EPC so no recube. (would be an initial cube though)
Don't have the book with me right now, hope I didn't misremember anything.
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