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43U-xx-11 positions

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 22 September 2010, at 3:36 a.m.

In Response To: A third-roll decision you haven't faced before (Timothy Chow)


 ' ' '1O1O5X '3X ' ' '5O

 ' ' '1X1X5O '3O ' ' '5X

43U-43U-21


I believe it's theoretically right to hit twice, but I believe the decision is closer than most respondents may think. I agree that White's response suggests s/he is a weak opponent (43U-43U is an agg .053 error) and this further supports Blue's incentive to double hit. The best alternative is (of course) 21/20 6/4*.

Below are some 43U-xx-11 positions to contemplate (I already have rollouts). In all cases, White did not hit with her response roll.

Nack


 ' '1X1O1O4X '3X ' ' '5O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '5X

43U-43E-11



 ' ' '1O1O5X '4X ' ' '5O

1X ' '1X '5O '3O ' ' '4X

43U-53S-11



 ' ' '1O1O5X '4X ' ' '5O

1X ' ' '1X5O '3O ' ' '4X

43U-54S-11



 ' '1X1O1O4X '3X ' ' '5O

1X ' ' ' '5O1X3O ' ' '5X

43U-63E-11



 ' '1X1O1O5X '3X ' ' '5O

2X ' ' ' '5O '3O ' ' '4X

43U-64$-11


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