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43U-xx-11 positions

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 5:56 a.m.

In Response To: 43U-xx-11 positions (Timothy Chow)

Your guesses appear in italics underneath the relevant diagrams, followed by my comments.

43U-43E-11

In all four [I think you mean five] positions I'd use two of the 1's to play 6/5(2). As for the other two 2's:

I'd anchor with 21/20 [see diagram above] and then I'm not sure between 6/5 and 8/7 but I would probably try 8/7.

Good call. According to agg (bot aggregate), 8/7 beats 6/5 by just .003.

43U-53S-11

6/4*.

21/20 6/5 and 5/4*(2) are exactly tied. By trunc, 21/20 8/7 is -.071, and 6/4* is -.077. Hitting loose is rarely better than solidly pointing on the 4pt, and here there is the additional deterrent of the two targets on the other side of the board.

43U-54S-11

21/20 and here I would think 6/5 is better than 8/7. White has no home-board blot so the indicators for bold play are not as strong.

Good. 6/5 beats 8/7 by .040.

43U-63E-11
P

8/7* and then I think 21/20 is better than either 7/6 or 8/7 for the last 1.

Good. 21/20 beats 8/7 by .077 (trunc). 7/6 is -.137.

43U-64$-11

21/20 and again I'm not sure about 6/5 versus 8/7 but we're further behind in the race than after 43U-43E-11 so I'd try 8/7.

Here, 6/5 beats 8/7 by .030 (instead of losing by .003 in the 43U-43E-11 position). You adjusted in the right direction for the 8 pips difference, but failed to adjust for White not being put on the bar -- a bigger factor the other way. After 8/7 here (compared to the other position), White has 14 vs 10 numbers that hit on the 18pt, the extra 4 of which hit and cover.

Here is a summary (includes N, which mostly I didn't mention above):

43U-43E-11 [M F3 N70]
43U-53S-11 [F=P M71 H77]
43U-54S-11 [F M40 N109]
43U-63E-11 [M N77 6137]
43U-64$-11 [F M30 N81]

Key: M = 21/20 8/7 6/5(2), F = 21/20 6/5(3), P = 6/4*(2), N = Near (8/7(2) 6/5(2), H = Hit loose (6/5(3) 5/4*), 6 = 8/7*/6 6/5(2).

Error sizes are in thousandths. For example, "[M N77 6137]" means that M is best, N is -.077, and the "6" play is -.137.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
  Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 2:30 a.m.
  • A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 2:34 a.m.
  • A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
    David -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 3:30 p.m.
    • A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 5:53 p.m.
      • A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
        David -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 6:53 p.m.
  • A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
    Keene -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 6:50 p.m.
  • A third-roll decision you haven't faced before
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 6:56 p.m.
  • GNU 4-ply
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 10:44 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Wednesday, 22 September 2010, at 3:12 a.m.
  • 43U-xx-11 positions
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 22 September 2010, at 3:36 a.m.
    • 43U-xx-11 positions
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 23 September 2010, at 11:55 p.m.
      • 43U-xx-11 positions
        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 5:56 a.m.
        • 43U-xx-11 positions
          Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:59 p.m.