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Play on?

Posted By: Kye Hedlund
Date: Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 5:20 p.m.

In Response To: Play on? (Timothy Chow)

Douglas Zare had a GV article (Gammons After Closeouts) which analyzed gammon rate vs. outfield pips and crossovers when 1 checker is closed out. If B can close out W (a really big if), her gammon rate would be (a la Zare) around 10-15%. So, in the best case for B, she needs to lose the game 5-8% here to break even when rolling on. B has 4 rolls leaving an immediate blot. The most likely continuation is for W to complete her 6-prime and linger on the 23pt for a couple of rolls. B's gammon rate drops even lower and getting hit is fatal. It looks to me like W's winning chances are higher than 5-8%. Cash now.

BTW, in general, what is the effect of B's cube ownership on her cash vs. play on decision?

--- Kye Hedlund

Messages In This Thread

• Play on?
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 24 September 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
  • Play on?
    Stick -- Friday, 24 September 2010, at 10:22 p.m.
    • Play on?
      neilkaz -- Friday, 24 September 2010, at 11:09 p.m.
  • Play on?
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 7:23 a.m.
    • Play on?
      Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 7:30 a.m.
      • Play on?
        Stick -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 8:12 a.m.
        • Play on?
          Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 8:22 a.m.
        • Play on?
          Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 9:57 p.m.
          • Play on?
            Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:48 p.m.
            • Play on?
              Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 11:44 p.m.
              • Play on?
                Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:51 a.m.
        • Outlier
          Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:17 a.m.
          • Outlier
            Stick -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:20 a.m.
            • Outlier
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 3:42 a.m.
              • Lonely at the top?
                Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 5:35 p.m.
                • Lonely at the top?
                  Stick -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 7:32 p.m.
      • Play on?
        neilkaz -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 2:43 p.m.
  • Play on?
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 8:12 a.m.
  • Play on?
    Kye Hedlund -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 5:20 p.m.
    • Play on?
      Bob Koca -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 5:57 p.m.
  • Rollout: Play on?
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:07 p.m.
    • Rollout of my decision on the next roll
      Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 11:10 p.m.