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YAC

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 6:14 p.m.

In Response To: YAC (Dmitriy Obukhov)

  • Double/Pass for -5 -2 or 25% match equity
  • Double/Take lose for -5 -1 C or 16% match equity
  • Double/Take win for -3 -3 or 50% match equity

Risking 9% (25-16) to gain 25% (50-25) giving us a raw take point of just over 26%. (risk/(risk+gain) or 9/(25+9)) The actual raw take point that I know from memory is closer to 29% and the 26% here comes from issues with rounding. Both -5 -2 and -5 -1 C round quite a bit.

Obviously there will be plenty of time for that recube vig to come into play from here. If you're facing a recube to 4 here as the leader your take point is much higher than it is for money.

  • Double/Pass for -3 -3 or 50% match equity
  • Double/Take lose for -3 -1 C or 25% match equity
  • Double/Take win for the match, 100% match equity

As you can see, getting 2-1 as your raw take point so you need 33% + gammon losses to take a recube should that variation come around.

The recube vig pushes the trailer's take point all the way down to roughly 20%. He certainly has over 20% here right so take? Oh wait...we forgot to mention all the gammons he loses in this position and what they're worth. The leader's gammons are still worth nearly the same as they would be for money on a 2 cube here. The trailer's gammons are of course increased in value by about half their usual value of .50 but are pretty rare from this position.

I think in general one would underestimate how many gammons the leader wins here. He looks stacked, somewhat inflexible, and as of now has no board. Well, the trailer doesn't have a board either and the leader has a looooooooot of men in the zone. One natural point making number and the blitz could be on next turn. All the doublets play nicely for the leader right now putting the blitzing pressure on also. Let's say the leader wins 15% gammons and the trailer 3% (that could still be underestimating the leader's gammons, I'm just not sure). That should push the take point back up to ~24%.

Assuming the figures are right does the trailer have 24% here? I think so..but I certainly wouldn't wait to cube. Any minor improvement feels like I could be in market loss territory and there are a lot of major improvements that could happen. Double/Take

Stick

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