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BGonline.org Forums
Rollout: Play on?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Play on? (Timothy Chow)
Date: Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:07 p.m.
[Note to neilkaz: Unless I explicitly announce otherwise, I only post positions that I've already rolled out with GNU. This is not to discourage you from rolling my positions out with XG—in fact, I very much welcome it—but just to let you know that if you expect that GNU's rollout will be trustworthy then you needn't bother.]
OTB I hesitated but decided to play on. I rolled 54 (5/off 4/off); White rolled 61 and stuck around and I again decided to play on. I rolled 22 (6/2*(2)); White entered and then after a couple of rolls I cashed.
The rollout indicates that playing on was a mistake. I'm in the process of rolling out my decision on the subsequent roll; my guess is that again I should have cashed.
Cube decision Rollout cubeless equity +0.901 Cubeful equities: 1. Double, pass +1.000 2. Double, take +1.755 +0.755 3. No double +0.968 -0.032 Proper cube action: Redouble, pass Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player tchow owns 2-cube 0.917 0.065 0.001 - 0.083 0.000 0.000 +0.901 +0.968 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.921 0.064 0.000 - 0.079 0.000 0.000 +1.812 +1.755 Standard error 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.003 0.004 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901267966 and quasi-random dice Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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