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Rollout: Middle-game double 3's to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:43 p.m.

In Response To: Middle-game double 3's to play (Timothy Chow)

OTB I played 18/15(2) and then wasn't sure whether White's board was too strong for me to make the 5 point. Being in doubt, I made the 5 point, but the rollout says it's a blunder. Interestingly, GNU 2-ply plays 8/2 8/5(2), which the rollout also says is a blunder.

I have not rolled out any plays that pull two checkers off the midpoint; I doubt that they are close.

While 18/15(2) 8/2 is certainly a logical play, I'm surprised at the sizes of the equity differences reported by the rollout. I would have thought that the plays were a little closer.

gnubg	150
tchow	133
Position ID: 2ObgAQwyz8HBAA Match ID: cIkNAAAAEAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	18/15(2) 8/2	+0.382
			0.606 0.068 0.003 - 0.394 0.073 0.002 +0.208 +0.382 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901069272 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	8/2 8/5(2)	+0.278 ( -0.103)
			0.578 0.112 0.004 - 0.422 0.083 0.003 +0.185 +0.278 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901069272 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	13/10 8/5(3)	+0.263 ( -0.118)
			0.570 0.123 0.004 - 0.430 0.084 0.003 +0.179 +0.263 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.009
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901069272 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	18/15(2) 8/5(2)	+0.252 ( -0.130)
			0.573 0.106 0.004 - 0.427 0.097 0.004 +0.155 +0.252 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901069272 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Middle-game double 3's to play
  Timothy Chow -- Friday, 24 September 2010, at 9:17 p.m.
  • Middle-game double 3's to play
    Stick -- Friday, 24 September 2010, at 10:20 p.m.
    • Middle-game double 3's to play
      neilkaz -- Friday, 24 September 2010, at 11:07 p.m.
  • Middle-game double 3's to play
    Marv Porten -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 12:39 a.m.
    • Middle-game double 3's to play
      Stick -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 3:12 a.m.
    • Middle-game double 3's to play
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 3:22 a.m.
  • Middle-game double 3's to play
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 6:24 a.m.
  • Middle-game double 3's to play
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 5:12 p.m.
  • Rollout: Middle-game double 3's to play
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:43 p.m.
    • Rollout: Middle-game double 3's to play
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 10:49 p.m.
  • Rollout of variant: Middle-game double 3's to play
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 12:13 a.m.