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Rollout: Is eight blots too many?

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 12:00 a.m.

In Response To: Is eight blots too many? (Timothy Chow)

I think it's pretty clear that trying to "play safe" here is wrong because there is no safe play; the question is just what attacking plan to pursue. OTB I played 16/10 8/4*, leaving "only" seven blots. After 5184 games the rollout is still TCTC between the top two plays. I don't plan to expend any more CPU time on this one, but I would be curious to see if XG concurs.

gnubg	185
tchow	183
Position ID: jBl8BFHQczBCKQ Match ID: cAkaABAAIAAA

• tchow moves 16/10 8/4*

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	16/10 8/4*	+0.064
			0.515 0.179 0.017 - 0.485 0.169 0.022 +0.036 +0.064 0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.006 0.014
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 314159265 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	16/10 13/9*	+0.060
			0.510 0.172 0.015 - 0.490 0.162 0.019 +0.027 +0.060 0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.012
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 314159265 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	13/9* 13/7	+0.012
			0.503 0.170 0.013 - 0.497 0.167 0.017 +0.005 +0.012 0.002 0.001 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.005 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			5184 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 314159265 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Is eight blots too many?
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 12:34 a.m.
  • Is eight blots too many?
    Dmitriy Obukhov -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 1:10 a.m.
  • Rollout: Is eight blots too many?
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 12:00 a.m.