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"Very unlucky," says GNU

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 7:19 p.m.

In Response To: "Very unlucky," says GNU (Chuck Bower)

I believe that (since Opp holds the cube) leaving more immediate shots with 5/2(3) 4/1 is right, but the decision appears to be much closer than 8.6% versus 5.5% hits. More like a 0.70% difference, I think.

(1) 66 55 44 33 leave shots (and the same shots) either way, with a small difference favoring leaving 13/36 shots now -- assuming you roll one of these numbers next roll, you're slightly less likely to be hit after rolling one of them because you've already been hit more often before rolling one of them! But 2/36 * 4/36 * 11/36 is not a very big number.

(2) Moving on, the larger swing is on the 12 rolls -- 65 64 63 54 53 43 -- that can be played safely after giving 2/36 extra shots now but give a single direct after the other play. --> 22/36 * 12/36 * 11/36 = 6.22% (22/36 not 23/36 because Opp must run with 66)

I ignore Opp's rolls after his next two ... and ignore gammons, too, since I can't tell which play wins more of them.

Messages In This Thread

• "Very unlucky," says GNU
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 11:05 p.m.
  • "Very unlucky," says GNU
    Klaus Evers -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 4:22 p.m.
  • "Very unlucky," says GNU
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 6:13 p.m.
    • "Very unlucky," says GNU
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 7:19 p.m.
      • "Very unlucky," says GNU
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
        • "Very unlucky," says GNU
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 1:40 a.m.
      • "Very unlucky," says GNU
        Sam Pottle -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 2:22 p.m.
  • Rollout: "Very unlucky," says GNU
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 12:37 a.m.