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Rollout: Anchor or hit? 5th roll

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Friday, 1 October 2010, at 2:44 p.m.

In Response To: Anchor or hit? 5th roll (Timothy Chow)

Chuck, sorry about the subject line. OTB I didn't give any serious consideration to making the 3 point. If my name were Stick Rice, I would brag that this oversight proves that I am sooooooooooooo good.

In favor of the hit is, well, it hits. The gain in tempo and pips is worth something. We might get a powerful blitz going with a couple of good rolls. While the bar-point anchor is an asset, it's not as valuable as, say, the golden anchor would be, and Blue is in no immediate danger of being attacked or primed. Against the hit is that it strips the midpoint, and leaves us with an awkward 6. I settled on 21/15 as the least evil, but this still leaves us with a somewhat fragile and strung-out position.

I eventually chose to hit. My "doubtful" setting on GNU is set to 0.020, and this one fell just under the radar according to GNU 2-ply, who put the hit 0.019 behind the anchor. A rollout, however, increased the discrepancy between the plays (though admittedly this is only a 1296-game rollout).

As for the 3 point, in general the bar-point anchor is better than the 3 point, so there has to be something extra going for the 3 point, and it just isn't present here.

gnubg	153
tchow	155
Position ID: 4PPgCSDg88IBIg Match ID: cAkPAPAAGAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	24/18 21/18	+0.177
			0.539 0.101 0.003 - 0.461 0.065 0.002 +0.116 +0.177 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.008
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901667379 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	21/15 13/10*	+0.129 ( -0.048)
			0.534 0.164 0.008 - 0.466 0.132 0.007 +0.100 +0.129 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.004 0.011
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901667379 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	9/3 6/3	+0.047 ( -0.130)
			0.507 0.151 0.006 - 0.493 0.117 0.004 +0.050 +0.047 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901667379 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/18 13/10*	+0.012 ( -0.165)
			0.502 0.144 0.006 - 0.498 0.137 0.008 +0.009 +0.012 0.002 0.002 0.000 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 0.004 0.010
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 901667379 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Anchor or hit? 5th roll
  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 2:31 a.m.
  • Anchor or hit? 5th roll
    Stanley E. Richards -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 4:37 a.m.
    • Anchor or hit? 5th roll
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 2:33 p.m.
  • Anchor or hit? 5th roll
    Stick -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 6:53 a.m.
  • 52S-63R-41S-41T-63, etc.
    Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 4:35 p.m.
    • 52S-63R-41S-41T-63, etc.
      Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 4:54 p.m.
      • 52S-63R-41S-41T-63, etc.
        Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 6:09 p.m.
    • 52S-63R-41S-41T-63, etc.
      David Rockwell -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 8:12 p.m.
  • What about making the 3-point?
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 30 September 2010, at 4:45 p.m.
  • Rollout: Anchor or hit? 5th roll
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 1 October 2010, at 2:44 p.m.