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BGonline.org Forums
Dire straits
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: Dire straits (christian munk-christensen)
Date: Saturday, 2 October 2010, at 3:32 p.m.
Interesting. If you PoH, you'll usually end up with one man closed out with about 2.5% winning chances. White could of course roll poorly and be unable to complete the closeout or complete it but be forced to bury his spares on his low points. Not sure how much these sequences are worth to Blue but I'll guess his winning chances are around 5% if he PoH. He could also try the bizarre (at any score where gammons mattered) 6/2x hoping for a hit - roll a 3 sequence. Or maybe he'll get hit and anchor on the 24 or 23-point. All these anchoring games will be poorly timed of course but I think they all give you over 5% wins. I'll guess 12%,8%, and 6% when you anchor on the opponent's 3,2, or 1-point. How about if you get hit, don't anchor, and get both closed out? I think Stick rolled some of these positions out where the side with two men closed out had a speed board (all on his 1,2, and 3-points) and that side only won 1% or so. Here our board's a little better so maybe we win around 1.5%.
So 6/2x risks 3.5% to gain around 4%. Do you succeed in anchoring 3.5/7.5 of the time? I think you do when he hits you but 16/36 White will dance and your anchoring chances go way down when that happens.
Hitting loose could also to lose a match-losing backgammon. How many bg's here? I'd guess it's less than 1% and the backgammon value ATS is a little over 100% ATS so that's another consideration.
So PoH looks better than 6/2x to me. Any other plays to consider here? You could try 6/3 6/5. That might allow you to keep a stronger board a little longer but I think I'd just make the boring PoH play here and hope for the best.
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