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32 backgame with shaky timing

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 4:43 p.m.

In Response To: 32 backgame with shaky timing (neilkaz)

This is a moneylike score so the takepoint is 25% + half the net g's + 100% of the net bg's less recube vig. How many net g's/bg's here? I could be way off here but I'll guess 30%/4% which raises the takepoint to 44%. Cube ownership is probably worth about 6% so White needs 38% cubeless chances to take this. I'm not at all sure he wins this often so Black should definitely send it over.

How about the take/pass decision? I think I'd take it. Black already has 2 dead checkers on the ace and large numbers force him to bury even more. How about White's timing? It should be alright since he's a fav to get a 5 or 6 next time and 9 of Black's numbers force him to break his 5-point on his next shake, 55 breaks the 6, I think he's supposed to voluntarily break his 7-point with 63,62,61,32,31, and 21, and he will clear the 7 with 66,33,22, and 11. So White will have 27 escapers after 26 of Black's next roll and 20 after the other 10. White's non-escaping rolls aren't horrible (except for 33), so it looks takeable to me.

D/T.

Messages In This Thread

• 32 backgame with shaky timing
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 3:32 p.m.
  • 32 backgame with shaky timing
    David -- Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 3:54 p.m.
  • 32 backgame with shaky timing
    John O'Hagan -- Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 4:43 p.m.
  • 32 backgame with shaky timing
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 7:24 p.m.
  • 32 backgame with shaky timing
    higonefive -- Sunday, 3 October 2010, at 10:51 p.m.
  • Any Rollout? *NM*
    David -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 9:20 p.m.