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London Bookies make Sax an 9 to 5 favorite.

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 6 October 2010, at 6:50 p.m.

In Response To: London Bookies make Sax an 9 to 5 favorite. (Barry Silliman)

Honestly, the nice error rates are rather meaningless. I thought it was one of the most boring matches I've played in some time. I thought that most of the decisions in the match for both players were obvious. There were no complicated games and very few tough decisions. I actually slightly outplayed Steve on checkers, but got dinged very big on cube decisions in one game - first a 0.096 error taking his 4-cube down 0-8(15) in the following position. With 6 checkers off to Steve's 2, and the 6 point open, I was figuring I had perhaps 18% winning chances. But I was apparently way off as XG gives me not quite 13%.

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 40
15 point match
pip: 47
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-D--BB--------------ccbbcA:1:-1:-1:00:0:8:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Then failing to recube to 8 later in the same game while being a dog. For example, the .317 cube error here:

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 13
15 point match
pip: 11
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-D-AA---------------aaa-a-:2:1:1:00:0:8:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

And finally the 0.242 error here winning only 33% of the time:

is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 5
15 point match
pip: 4
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-D-------------------a--a-:2:1:1:00:0:8:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

OTB, I thought about all of these cube decisions. I just never considered the 1 point of overage to be that much of a consideration, figuring I could redouble as a slight underdog. But I obviously erred by not considering how hopeless it is to come back from -3,-15 (though I did that once in Monte Carlo). Clearly my doubling window opens very far below 50% here, and I have obvious market losers.

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