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Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read/One Correction

Posted By: Christian Plenz
Date: Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 3:13 a.m.

In Response To: Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read/One Correction (Leonardo Jerkovic)

'MWC % really tells you how much actual MWC chances u gave up. '

This is an interesting point. Snowie makes it easy and has luck and skill in its way of understanding biased equally for match calculations (100-luck=skill differences or MWC's thrown away).

(so does is not uses Variance Reduction on matches?)

When I remember correctly Snowie always compares the possible best move/decision on the highest ply (Rollout if available) with the latest highest ply/Rollout of the situation your opponent set up. XG and lets assume on WC Analysis looks for the luck on 4ply always. When you go deeper or make rollouts and Blunders become Outplays in extreme situation this will not change the luck. (it changes the PR of course) This is allright since the errors the players made are leading to the new match situation where we try to estimate the luck.

Although I like your ideas on Variance Reduction if we analyze with XG I am not totally confident.

Let me give an example.

I have recorded a 5 point match. The DMP game was kind of a backgame.

On the Thorough Analysis the luck for the whole match was +50%

and on World Class it was +80% for the winner.

Funny enough that the +80% guy has upgraded his PR from 6.0 (Thorough) to 5.0 (WC).

Messages In This Thread

• Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
  phil simborg -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 11:38 a.m.
  • Great Interview
    Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 12:44 p.m.
  • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
    Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 1:46 p.m.
  • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
    mtuhtan -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 3:28 p.m.
    • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 6:35 p.m.
      • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read/One Correction
        phil simborg -- Wednesday, 6 October 2010, at 3:42 a.m.
        • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read/One Correction
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Wednesday, 6 October 2010, at 4:16 a.m.
          • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read/One Correction
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Wednesday, 6 October 2010, at 4:42 a.m.
            • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read/One Correction
              Christian Plenz -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 3:13 a.m.
  • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
    Stick -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 5:05 p.m.
    • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
      Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 5:37 p.m.
      • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
        Stick -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
        • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
          Steve Mellen -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 5:57 p.m.
        • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
          Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 6:30 p.m.
          • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
            Stick -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 6:31 p.m.
            • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
              Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 1:30 a.m.
              • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 1:46 a.m.
                • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                  Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 2:01 a.m.
                  • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                    Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 2:06 p.m.
                    • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                      phil simborg -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 2:09 a.m.
                      • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 2:56 a.m.
                      • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                        Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 7:05 a.m.
                      • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                        Bob Koca -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 5:11 p.m.
                        • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
                          Henrik Bukkjaer -- Friday, 8 October 2010, at 8:26 p.m.
      • Favorite quote, and a question/topic for further discussion
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 5:50 p.m.
    • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
      Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 5 October 2010, at 7:01 p.m.
    • Bob Koca Interview--A Must Read
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 7 October 2010, at 1:55 a.m.