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Bad news from Belgium

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Friday, 8 October 2010, at 6:12 p.m.

In Response To: Bad news from Belgium (Bob Koca)

"I am not sure what you mean here. Would someone who chooses randomly do better gambling $1000 at sports betting or at entering backgammon tournaments?"

What I mean is that if we have a football game between two pro teams with an established spread, and we take someone who knows the teams and the players intimately betting, and alternatively we have a coin choosing the bet, how much of the time will the expert do better than the coin? What if the expert bet on all games that week, not just one. How much of the time would the expert do better for the week than the coin?

To answer your question, placing a random bet of $1000 on a sports contest will probably on average return 85% to the bettor. Entering a backgammon tournament for $1000 and then making random moves will average a 0% return to the bettor.

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