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RO

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Tuesday, 12 October 2010, at 1:37 a.m.

In Response To: 51S-43 at GS (David Rockwell)

I was quite suprised by this rollout which is why I posted it. I expected 43S (Split 24-20, 13-10) to be best. The best play; X (hit and split 24-21, 6-2*) is strong after 41S since the tempo prevents many point making numbers by the opener. Here, opener does not have many point making numbers, so the tempo is less valuable. This is another example of a hit playing surprisingly well at gammon save as discussed in the 52S-64 thread.

S and U are playable of course. Z is not recommended.

	is Black score: 0 pip: 161 2 point match Crawford pip: 167 score: 1 is White
XGID=-aa---E-C---dE---d-e----B-:0:0:1:43:1:0:1:2:10
to play 43

1.	Rollout1	24/21 6/2*	eq: -0.356
	Player: Opponent: 45.78% (G:16.95% B:1.57%) 54.22% (G:13.59% B:1.46%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.358...-0.354) Duration: 1 day 04 hours 00 minute
2.	Rollout1	24/20 13/10	eq: -0.360 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 46.06% (G:16.99% B:1.60%) 53.94% (G:14.05% B:1.45%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.362...-0.358) Duration: 1 day 01 hour 47 minutes
3.	Rollout1	24/21 24/20	eq: -0.363 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 46.76% (G:17.49% B:1.70%) 53.24% (G:14.92% B:1.36%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.365...-0.361) Duration: 1 day 01 hour 23 minutes
4.	Rollout2	24/21 13/9	eq: -0.374 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 45.71% (G:17.77% B:1.72%) 54.29% (G:14.40% B:1.51%) Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.377...-0.371) Duration: 16 hours 34 minutes
5.	Rollout3	13/10 13/9	eq: -0.381 (-0.025)
	Player: Opponent: 45.75% (G:18.83% B:1.75%) 54.25% (G:14.80% B:2.37%) Conf: ± 0.003 (-0.384...-0.378) Duration: 1 day 03 hours 04 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 39896914 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 39896914 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 3 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 39896914 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• 51S-43 at GS
  David Rockwell -- Sunday, 10 October 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
  • 51S-43 at GS
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 10 October 2010, at 9:05 p.m.
  • RO
    David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 12 October 2010, at 1:37 a.m.
    • RO
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 12 October 2010, at 2:54 a.m.
      • The power of X at gammon save
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 12 October 2010, at 5:57 p.m.