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RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Tuesday, 12 October 2010, at 3:45 a.m.

In Response To: Pos from Masters vs. Malcolm (John O'Hagan)

The RO shows it to be a close double and easy take ATS. Black has a reasonable chance at a quick turnaround if White rolls poorly (55,54) or if White hits loose but Black hits back. ATS he can recube aggressively and a redoubled g wins the match with no overage. OTB, I decided there were enough big mkt losers to justify doubling. Malcolm took, I rolled perfectly and closed out 4 men to win a gammon.

is Player 2

score: 3
pip: 150
11 point match
pip: 129
score: 6

is Player 1
XGID=-aaCBBB-B---dB--aa-cb-b-B-:0:0:1:00:6:3:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.59% (G: 40.40% B: 4.86%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.41% (G: 10.02% B: 0.82%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.81% (G: 41.97% B: 5.89%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.19% (G: 10.07% B: 1.52%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.656
Double:+1.296
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.622 (-0.018)
Double/Take:+0.640
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.360)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.610...+0.634)
Confidence Double: ± 0.020 (+0.620...+0.660)
Double Decision confidence: 93.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 57 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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