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Unlimited Game - Cube Action - XGR+ Evaluation

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 7:31 a.m.

In Response To: Unlimited Game - Cube Action - XGR+ Evaluation (Dave Ranson)

I have yet to do a rollout as not done one before. Will 3 ply with VR over 1296 games be appropriate at this stage of the game?

It depends on what you mean by 'appropriate'. Usually what you want out of a rollout is for the decision (here the cube action) to be 100%. (both on the double and the take) It doesn't matter what stage of the game it's in as to whether you need 1296 trials, 5184 trials, or 46656 trials or more, it matters how close the decisions are and the amount of variance left in the rollout. You won't know this until you put the rollout on. Another variable that affects how many trials one typically uses for rollouts is the amount of computer time you want to invest in the problem itself. For example, since this problem is near the end of the game on a decent machine you will finish 1296 trials in no time as shown below. (97 seconds)

You should of course always have a minimum number of trials before you stop a rollout. I think 324 trials as a minimum is a must. For example, if XG reports that a play is 100% after 3 trials I don't care, I still let it go 324 games to cut out at least a little of the variance and make sure those 3 games weren't just flukes.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 104
Money session
pip: 59
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-CbCCDaAA----------c-bbbc-:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:0:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64.27% (G: 10.76% B: 0.22%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.73% (G: 4.30% B: 0.10%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.02% (G: 17.57% B: 0.43%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.98% (G: 4.32% B: 0.11%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.351
Redouble:+0.952
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.619 (-0.173)
Redouble/Take:+0.793
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.207)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.007 (+0.612...+0.626)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.017 (+0.776...+0.810)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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