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Unlimited Game - Cube Action - XGR+ Evaluation

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 10:56 p.m.

In Response To: Unlimited Game - Cube Action - XGR+ Evaluation (Stick)

99.5% confidence is the new 95%.

That's fine (noting, though, that the oft-desired 3 sigma 99.87% confidence level predates XG speed). But 100% is not the new 99.5%.

because even if you get a play 100% certain by 50 trials for example, I like to have a better idea of exactly how bad the other play was

Again, fine, but you may also get, after (say) 50 trials, an answer identical to that of a rollout extended indefinitely. In which case 50 trials is enough, and more is a waste, superfluous, unnecessary, call it what you like. Or after (say) 143 trials of two plays, equities might be accurate (with 95%, 99.% or 99.87% confidence) to (say) 3 decimal places. In which case more trials are only useful if accuracy to 4 decimal places is desired.

In short, imagining myself as knowing nothing about rollouts, I think I'd have gotten the impression that (1) there was some magic minimum number of trials and (2) a rollout that does not yield up a 100% certain answer is unsatisfactory. I'd have been misinformed, on both counts.

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