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Minimum # of Trials and Confidence

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 5:32 p.m.

In Response To: Minimum # of Trials and Confidence (Daniel Murphy)

Clear enough then?

The score (after 0 games) is: gnubg 0, Neil 0 (match to 7 points)

Move number 1: Neil to play 31

gnubg	167
Neil	167
Position ID: 4HPwATDgc/ABMA Match ID: cInsAAAAAAAA

• Neil moves 8/5 6/5

Alert: very bad move ( -1.117)

#		Ply	Move	Equity
	1	R	8/7 6/3	+0.662
			0.523 0.165 0.014 - 0.477 0.025 0.003 +0.036 +0.662 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	13/10 6/5	+0.447 ( -0.215)
			0.544 0.121 0.009 - 0.456 0.105 0.005 +0.130 +0.447 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	8/7 8/5	+0.429 ( -0.232)
			0.666 0.132 0.007 - 0.334 0.299 0.142 -0.007 +0.429 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	24/23 13/10	-0.001 ( -0.663)
			0.507 0.143 0.009 - 0.493 0.132 0.004 +0.042 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	5	R	24/23 8/5	-0.013 ( -0.675)
			0.481 0.148 0.013 - 0.519 0.034 0.000 +0.093 -0.013 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	6	R	13/10 8/7	-0.128 ( -0.789)
			0.450 0.162 0.022 - 0.550 0.100 0.022 -0.040 -0.128 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
•	7	R	24/21 6/5	-0.198 ( -0.860)
			0.422 0.151 0.008 - 0.578 0.131 0.010 -0.145 -0.198 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	8	R	24/23 24/21	-0.242 ( -0.903)
			0.497 0.123 0.006 - 0.503 0.138 0.004 -0.019 -0.242 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	9	R	24/23 6/3	-0.247 ( -0.909)
			0.458 0.111 0.005 - 0.542 0.169 0.008 -0.147 -0.247 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	10	R	24/20	-0.299 ( -0.961)
			0.472 0.128 0.006 - 0.528 0.137 0.005 -0.065 -0.299 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	11	R	8/4	-0.379 ( -1.041)
			0.476 0.161 0.008 - 0.524 0.203 0.013 -0.098 -0.379 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	12	R	13/9	-0.410 ( -1.072)
			0.429 0.159 0.007 - 0.571 0.073 0.009 -0.055 -0.410 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	13	R	24/21 8/7	-0.410 ( -1.072)
			0.438 0.157 0.007 - 0.562 0.204 0.012 -0.177 -0.410 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	14	R	6/5 6/3	-0.444 ( -1.106)
			0.479 0.113 0.006 - 0.521 0.204 0.011 -0.141 -0.444 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	15	R	8/5 6/5	-0.456 ( -1.117)
			0.469 0.161 0.009 - 0.531 0.093 0.000 +0.043 -0.456 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	16	R	6/2	-0.678 ( -1.340)
			0.320 0.131 0.004 - 0.680 0.033 0.001 -0.253 -0.678 0.000 0.000 0.000 - 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898907331 and quasi-random dice
			Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
  Stick -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 10:21 p.m.
  • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 11:08 p.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Tom Keith -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 1:31 p.m.
  • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 2:22 a.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Stick -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 5:32 a.m.
      • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
        Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
        • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
          Neil Robins -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 5:32 p.m.
          • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
            Stick -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 6:19 p.m.
            • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
              eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 7:27 p.m.
              • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 20 October 2010, at 5:55 p.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
      • In defense of single trial rollouts
        Tom Keith -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 7:46 p.m.
        • In defense of single trial rollouts
          Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 11:42 a.m.
          • In defense of single trial rollouts
            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 2:54 p.m.
            • In defense of single trial rollouts
              Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
            • In defense of single trial rollouts
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 7:18 p.m.
              • In defense of single trial rollouts
                Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 8:42 p.m.
              • In defense of single trial rollouts
                Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 20 October 2010, at 11:17 p.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Tom Keith -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
  • OT Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    svilo -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 8:46 a.m.
  • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    higonefive -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 11:25 a.m.
  • 324 is basically my minimum.
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 4:50 p.m.