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Best move for 21 after 61.

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 8:31 p.m.

In Response To: Best move for 21 after 61. (Maik Stiebler)

As mentioned here, the swing on Opp's 66 is overrated, while the swing on Opp's 55 is meaningful.

The "strong 6s" factor on the follow-up roll is often misunderstood. Here, it's mostly 65, with some 66 and 62 mixed in (the latter roll only because you'll be induced to run instead of covering your 11pt when Opp has blocked 24/18 with her 7pt). The net effect of other 6s is negligible (in fact 61 cancels out 63 and 64) because you can make a key offensive point -- you wouldn't be splitting with 24/18 anyway.

For an (admittedly crude) demonstration, I set up 21$, 21S, 61P-21$ and 61P-21S for Blue, skipped White's roll and allowed Blue to roll again. Comparing the four 3-ply equities for each of the 6s, then dividing the swing differences by 18 or 36, gives us:

65: +.0167
66: +.0064
62: +.0039
63: +.0008
64: +.0008
61: –.0018

For the 61, the minus sign means that if you follow with 61, you actually gain in efficiency playing 21S vs 61P-21S. For the rest of the 6s, you gain in efficiency playing 21$ vs 61P-21$, but 65 dwarfs the other 6s.

Nack

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