The position you have is a clear hit i think too. This is mostly because the return hits of 24-18 8-7 ultimately destroy us considering opponent's super strong board since the 18-checker is vulnerable too and we have only 2 home points.
But 2 slightly modified positions are of greater challenge:
The first is the below one where there are 3 choices:
24-18 8-7
18-11*
13-7 8-7
The last one is probably an almost no-no play, since we will get hit twice almost surely and the 3 checkers will most probably provide enough time for the back 2 checkers of white to escape our 5-prime.
So it's a matter of 24-18 8-7 or 18-11*. GNUBG's 2 ply(real 3) fails miserably at this and it has an exact opposite opinion from its own rollouts. GNUBG cubefull 2 ply says 18-11* is 0.058 better, while its rollouts say the opposite and give 24-18 8-7 the title of the best move. But i'm not convinced yet. :-)
In fact i think i would play 18-11* although i understand that after 18-11* we(blue) should play safely being on desperate need of making good points with no direct shots and also we can't attack and hit loose in our home board. But these 11 return shots that hits us of the alternative move, aren't too much?? Or they aren't? And there is also to consider the dancing probability the 18-11* gives in which we can use for making our bar point or the 18-point which would be huge. I don't know, i guess rollouts are correct. :-)
| gnubg | 129 |
|---|---|
| |
| George | 170 |
Position ID: tm3AAlDY5mAQOA Match ID: cAmnAQAAEAAA | |
The other positions is the one below and again GNUBG would prefer by using its 2-ply the wrong move of hitting. But that was too close. And wrong as its rollouts say.
The hitting here in contrast to the previous position, is a bit more obvious to me why it's incorrect here. The spare on the 6-point can be used now to attack creating another home point yes, but even if we indeed succeed doing that we don't gain much since if white enters we have not a good play left and we will struggle as our 8 point would be weak and we would have to abandon our midpoint soon provided we don't roll a 6 very soon. So 24-18 6-5 leaves us with a better position that has much less probabilities to crash on the future.
Can someone with the XGRoller thing, tell me what it thinks about these 2 positions first with its equivalent to GNUBG's 2 ply and secondly with its XGR+ opinion? Thanks in advance.
| gnubg | 129 |
|---|---|
| |
| George | 168 |
Position ID: tm3AAlDYzmAQOA Match ID: cIn4AAAAAAAA | |