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In defense of single trial rollouts

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 7:18 p.m.

In Response To: In defense of single trial rollouts (Tom Keith)

"If you rollout an entire game, one trial, you might get an equity of, say, +0.03 for the starting position (before the first roll). We know that's wrong. The equity of the starting position is zero. Where did this error come from?

It comes from errors in the luck evaluation during variance reduction. (If the luck evaluation had been perfect during variance reduction, then the rollout equity of the starting position would be zero.) "

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You said you could do this for a recorded game and get a rollout for every position in the game. So you don't ever ask the bot to play anything. Couldn't the .03 equity come from erors made from the players and not from the luck evaluations being off?

I am not sure if you are just joking around now or not.

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