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WASTAGE AND VARIANCE

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 7:40 p.m.

In Response To: WASTAGE AND VARIANCE (Bob Koca)

"you need, among other things, a crude estimate of the variance ((which, usually, you can easily derive from the estimated wastage). "

Since it is easy to do would you mind explaining how?

The keyword is "crude", which includes "non-quantitative" ;-) All you need is my first rule of thumb. If both positions have a high wastage, variance (I use that term loosely here, meaning some compound of the variance of both sides) is low, if both positions have a low wastage, variance is high. Feel free to interpolate. Be aware of exceptions.

"Low variance, as a rule of thumb, increases the value of every effective pip."

I don't understand what you mean here. Note that if you are losing the race you would choose a high variance position over a low variance one (for either side) if EPC are equal and vice versa.

It seems you do understand what I mean, you just don't agree with my wording. Regarding your example: I agree, if your opponent is on roll and EPC are equal, you are better off with high variance for either side, but in any case you are losing the race (gwc<50%). If you change your position such that you reduce your epc by four, variance does not matter much, you are now close to 50% gwc. Thus, in the high variance case, the gwc value of the four pip change was lower, which is what I meant.

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