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Outboarded?

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Thursday, 21 October 2010, at 7:45 p.m.

In Response To: Outboarded? (Chuck Bower)

Suppose you hit. Are you giving him the equivalent of 4 extra shots the next turn?

Well if he gets one of the 13 hitting numbers or 44 or 55 there are no delayed shots. That is close to half eliminated.

The other half of the time i tmight matter. but if you get at least 8 pips (17 rolls) or if comes in with something like a 31 and spreads the hitters and you roll exactly 7 pips it doesn't matter either. Suppose he gets a 21 and speads the builders and you roll exactly 6 pips. He actually has 2 fewer shots now. Say that you have given him extra shots 1/4th of the time (which I am pretty sure is an overestimate)

In those cases how many extra shots might he get? The worse it could be is 11 extra shots (if he enters on deuce and then you have to hit there). Often it will be much less. For example suppose he gets a 24 from the bar and then you get 5 pips). On average it seems to be less than 9 extra shots and I think actually quite a bit smaller than that. So less than 1/4th of the time when you left the extra shots does it matter.

Getting hit an extra 1/16 of the time (and that is probably an overestimate) of course is good tradeoff to take away 4 immediate hitters. Hitting is very clear. Four extra immediate shots swings the game immediately 11% of the time and that is a huge amount to overcome with delayed shot potential.

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