| |
BGonline.org Forums
4a-4a doubling?
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: 4a-4a doubling? (mtuhtan)
Date: Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 1:45 p.m.
A) White's takepoint is 25% plus half the net g's plus all of the net bg's less recube vig. I'll give Blue 25% net g's and 3% net bg's which raises the takepoint to 40.5%. I think cube vig should be worth about 5.5% here so White needs around 35% cubeless chances to take. Does he have it? Not immediately obvious to me so I think Blue should definitely double. Now back to the take/pass decision. Blue's got 2 ways to make both the 3 and 5-points, 8 that make the 3-point, 12 that either make the 5-point or hit loose on his 3-point, and 14 others that hit loose on his 3-point. That's a lot of serious threats but White will be in good shape if he can make the 22-point or hit back after being hit loose. Additionally there's the chance that Blue might have trouble getting out of White's board. Looks close but I think White wins slightly over 35% here giving him a close take.
B) The takepoint calc is different ATS. If White takes and automatically redoubles on his next shake his takepoint is whatever his MWC are at 4a-3a (I use 42.5%). If White handles the cube correctly, he can usually knock 2% or 3% off of this figure which lowers the takepoint to around 40%. I don't think White wins this thing 2/5 of the time, so I'd pass ATS.
Tough problem and I'm not very confident about my conclusions.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.