BGonline.org Forums

Opening 21 at various scores

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 9:16 p.m.

This is a late reply to Neil Robin's posting of an opening 21 at -3 -5. I thought people might want to see what XG has to say about an opening 21 at what I consider all the major scores. This extends out to -5 -5 in my book. I let the rollouts go to either what XG reports as 100% confidence or 46k, whichever came first.

I did not roll it out at -1 -3 Crawford, -1 -5 Crawford, or -2 -2 since these scores are essentially dmp. The post Crawford free drop scores area also omitted for obvious reasons. Aside from that I think I have all the scores represented but feel free to speak up if I forget to post something. I will first sum up all the info into some sort of table (I haven't created it yet, so hopefully I find something appealing to the eye) and then post the actual rollouts after for those who want to see them. There is of course more rollout information available at the 4 major scores. If you're looking for that you can check Nack's summary.

Opening 21

-1 -4 C	[$=S] 46k
-1 -5 PC	[S $6] 27k
-2 -3	[$ S6] 46k
-2 -4	[S $1] 46k
-2 -5	[S $11] 35k
-3 -2	[$ S30] 10k
-3 -3	[$ S21] 13k
-3 -4	[S $1] 46k
-3 -5	[S $3] 46k
-4 -4	[$ S16] 20k
-4 -5	[S $4] 46k
-5 -4	[$ S17] 31k
-5 -5	[$ S7] 46k

	is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 167 5 point match Crawford pip: 167 score: 4 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:4:1:1:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.114
	Player: Opponent: 50.37% (G:16.46% B:2.15%) 49.63% (G:14.35% B:1.65%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.116...-0.112) Duration: 1 day 01 hour 49 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.114
	Player: Opponent: 50.03% (G:16.57% B:1.97%) 49.97% (G:13.82% B:0.92%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.116...-0.112) Duration: 22 hours 53 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 4 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:4:0:0:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.189
	Player: Opponent: 49.72% (G:16.29% B:2.00%) 50.28% (G:13.70% B:0.42%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.191...-0.187) Duration: 9 hours 27 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.195 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 50.00% (G:16.59% B:2.26%) 50.00% (G:14.30% B:0.52%) Conf: ± 0.002 (-0.197...-0.193) Duration: 10 hours 45 minutes
1 27216 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:3:2:0:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.225
	Player: Opponent: 50.40% (G:15.87% B:1.88%) 49.60% (G:14.46% B:2.96%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.229...-0.221) Duration: 22 hours 14 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.231 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 49.92% (G:15.75% B:1.79%) 50.08% (G:13.63% B:2.16%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.235...-0.227) Duration: 19 hours 36 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:3:1:0:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.324
	Player: Opponent: 50.10% (G:16.40% B:2.35%) 49.90% (G:13.65% B:1.26%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.328...-0.320) Duration: 1 day 05 hours 22 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.325
	Player: Opponent: 50.07% (G:16.18% B:2.40%) 49.93% (G:13.79% B:1.82%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.329...-0.321) Duration: 1 day 08 hours 00 minute
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:3:0:0:5:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.114
	Player: Opponent: 49.86% (G:15.75% B:1.91%) 50.14% (G:13.48% B:0.54%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.118...-0.110) Duration: 23 hours 01 minute
2.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.125 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 50.13% (G:15.85% B:2.03%) 49.87% (G:14.08% B:0.70%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.129...-0.121) Duration: 1 day 00 hour 43 minutes
1 34989 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 3 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:2:3:0:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.284
	Player: Opponent: 50.80% (G:14.64% B:2.20%) 49.20% (G:17.02% B:2.89%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.275...+0.293) Duration: 6 hours 26 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: +0.254 (-0.030)
	Player: Opponent: 50.28% (G:14.24% B:2.29%) 49.72% (G:15.45% B:1.80%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.246...+0.262) Duration: 5 hours 40 minutes
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 3 point match pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:3:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.025
	Player: Opponent: 50.52% (G:14.65% B:1.27%) 49.48% (G:15.10% B:1.87%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.016...+0.034) Duration: 5 hours 12 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: +0.004 (-0.021)
	Player: Opponent: 50.04% (G:14.37% B:1.30%) 49.96% (G:13.92% B:1.20%) Conf: ± 0.008 (-0.004...+0.012) Duration: 4 hours 34 minutes
1 12960 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:2:1:0:5:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.113
	Player: Opponent: 49.93% (G:14.70% B:1.24%) 50.07% (G:13.44% B:1.60%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.117...-0.109) Duration: 15 hours 17 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.114 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 50.16% (G:14.87% B:1.25%) 49.84% (G:14.02% B:2.24%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.119...-0.109) Duration: 17 hours 09 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 2 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:2:0:0:5:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.076
	Player: Opponent: 49.86% (G:14.58% B:1.78%) 50.14% (G:13.42% B:0.63%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.080...-0.072) Duration: 12 hours 20 minutes
2.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.079 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 50.20% (G:14.73% B:1.78%) 49.80% (G:14.18% B:0.84%) Conf: ± 0.004 (-0.083...-0.075) Duration: 13 hours 45 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 4 point match pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:0:0:4:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.026
	Player: Opponent: 50.42% (G:14.27% B:1.50%) 49.58% (G:14.60% B:2.10%) Conf: ± 0.008 (+0.018...+0.034) Duration: 9 hours 21 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: +0.010 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 50.11% (G:14.20% B:1.46%) 49.89% (G:13.83% B:1.56%) Conf: ± 0.007 (+0.003...+0.017) Duration: 7 hours 56 minutes
1 20736 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:1:0:0:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.060
	Player: Opponent: 50.34% (G:14.38% B:1.17%) 49.66% (G:14.37% B:0.96%) Conf: ± 0.005 (+0.055...+0.065) Duration: 9 hours 49 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: +0.056 (-0.004)
	Player: Opponent: 50.02% (G:14.21% B:1.20%) 49.98% (G:13.61% B:0.70%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.052...+0.060) Duration: 8 hours 40 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:21:0:1:0:5:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: -0.026
	Player: Opponent: 50.47% (G:14.24% B:0.71%) 49.53% (G:14.69% B:1.84%) Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.032...-0.020) Duration: 14 hours 49 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: -0.043 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 50.14% (G:13.92% B:0.68%) 49.86% (G:13.76% B:1.18%) Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.048...-0.038) Duration: 13 hours 10 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 167 5 point match pip: 167 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:12:0:0:0:5:10
to play 12

1.	Rollout1	13/11 6/5	eq: +0.015
	Player: Opponent: 50.47% (G:14.22% B:0.68%) 49.53% (G:14.40% B:0.96%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.011...+0.019) Duration: 12 hours 25 minutes
2.	Rollout1	24/23 13/11	eq: +0.008 (-0.007)
	Player: Opponent: 50.07% (G:14.07% B:0.68%) 49.93% (G:13.50% B:0.70%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.004...+0.012) Duration: 10 hours 55 minutes
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Messages In This Thread

• Opening 21 at various scores
  Stick -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 9:16 p.m.
  • Opening 21 at various scores
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 9:44 p.m.
    • Opening 21 at various scores
      Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 1:28 a.m.
      • Opening 21 at various scores
        David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 2:58 a.m.
        • Opening 21 at various scores
          Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 1:18 p.m.
    • Opening 21 at various scores
      Neil Robins -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 7:07 a.m.
  • Opening 21 at various scores
    Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 1:11 a.m.
    • Opening 21 at various scores
      Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 1:15 p.m.
      • Opening 21 at various scores
        Nack Ballard -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 2:42 p.m.
  • Opening 21 at various scores
    Bob Koca -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 1:29 a.m.
    • Opening 21 at various scores
      David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 2:35 a.m.
    • Opening 21 at various scores
      Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 1:13 p.m.