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63S-54? vs 51S-62R-52? at 3a:3a

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 4:59 p.m.

In Response To: 63S-54? vs 51S-62R-52? at 3a:3a (Maik Stiebler)

The score shouldn't make a difference.

The primary reasons for hitting loose on the ace point on the second move are:

1. To disconnect the back two checkers - for example 63S-54X (Hit and split 24-20, 6-1*) takes away connecting sixes (your position is 63R-54).

2. To gain a tempo to prevent the opener from making a point - for example 41S-54X is too close to call along with S. The opener makes a point on almost all rolls if left alone so the tempo is very valuable.

Since neither of these reasons are present in either of the positions given, I wouldn't have even seen hit and split, even though X does leave a better distribution of builders on the 6 and 8 compared to S. However, the plays are close enough that your question is valid. Why is 54X very close after 63R and not that close after 51S-62R?

I believe that the reason is the duplication of hitting aces. Aces are duplicated after 63R-54X and diversified after 51S-62R-52X. To test this hypothesis, you might look at 51S-62R-53. Ignore the fact that P is obviously best and just compare S and X. (23-20, 13-8 and 23-20, 6-1*). If X plays as well as you were expecting when you rolled 52, duplication of aces is probably the answer.

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