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9a - 13a, recube?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Monday, 25 October 2010, at 6:47 a.m.

In Response To: 9a - 13a, recube? (John O'Hagan)

I love when I get to John O'Hagan a John O'Hagan post.

Here using Neil's numbers we get:

  • Double/Pass for -7 -13 or 23% match equity
  • Double/Take & Lose for -5 -13 or 14% match equity
  • Double/Take & Win for -9 -9 or 50% match equity

You'd be risking 9% to gain 27% putting your raw take point at 25%. If the 4 cube is taken what is the leader's take point on an 8 cube?

  • Double/Pass for -9 -9 or 50% match equity
  • Double/Take & Lose for -9 -5 or 27% match equity
  • Double/Take & Win for -1 -13 or 98% match equity

You'd be risking 23% to gain 48% or a take point of 32%. This means that if the person on roll in the original problem indeed misses with one of his immediate bad numbers [21 22 32 42 52 62] he'd clearly have a take being a favorite in the game itself but the trailer should still cube even as a dog in the game itself.

This position looks a lot like a 3 roll position to my untrained eye so without doing any further work I'll put the player on roll's winning chances around 78% meaning he should clearly double. The recube vig is enough to make it worth taking for the trailer.

Double/Take

Stick

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