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4ply 5k rollout ATS

Posted By: mtuhtan
Date: Monday, 25 October 2010, at 3:49 p.m.

In Response To: 4a-4a doubling? (mtuhtan)

		White is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 190 5 point match pip: 140 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=b-baB-D-CCA-b----b-bbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:1:1:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	61,13% (G: 35,30% B: 5,49%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38,87% (G: 7,71% B: 0,65%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	60,68% (G: 36,25% B: 14,11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	39,32% (G: 7,92% B: 1,04%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0,696
Double:	+1,818
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0,798 (-0,202)
Double/Take:	+1,000
Double/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,000)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1296 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0,014 (+0,784...+0,812)
Confidence Double:	± 0,026 (+0,973...+1,026)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	51,1%
Duration: 10 hours 19 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Even after 5k trials, there is still a lot of variance left. But, it is not a big pass like many of us have thought.

(For money it is easy take)

Messages In This Thread

• 4a-4a doubling?
  mtuhtan -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 12:36 p.m.
  • 4a-4a doubling?
    garyo -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 1:03 p.m.
  • 4a-4a doubling?
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 1:45 p.m.
  • 4a-4a doubling?
    Mr Majestyk -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 2:06 p.m.
  • 4a-4a doubling?
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 23 October 2010, at 3:37 p.m.
  • 4a-4a doubling?
    mtuhtan -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 1:33 p.m.
  • 4ply 5k rollout ATS
    mtuhtan -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 3:49 p.m.