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Rollout

Posted By: misja
Date: Monday, 25 October 2010, at 6:41 p.m.

In Response To: 53 to play (misja)

I played 18/15 18/13, 18/10 seemed wrong because it gave 32 as a hit and cover and some numbers that hit and took the blot away, while my play would get a double shot on 61.

All of that may be true but apparently there is more going on in this position, because XG's dice distribution analysis tells me that after normal rolls for white, e.g. 52 (should be played 6/4 6/1 after either play), 18/10 would give me a higher equity.
I still don't really understand why. Is it the long term value of holding the 18-point?

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 92 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 120 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=--BBBBBc-----B----Cc-acbc-:1:-1:1:53:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 53

1.	Rollout1	18/10	eq: +0,201
	Player: Opponent: 60,65% (G:18,91% B:0,63%) 39,35% (G:6,66% B:0,05%) Conf: ± 0,008 (+0,193...+0,209) Duration: 5 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/15 18/13	eq: +0,179 (-0,022)
	Player: Opponent: 59,78% (G:17,84% B:0,59%) 40,22% (G:5,77% B:0,03%) Conf: ± 0,008 (+0,171...+0,187) Duration: 4 minutes 29 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• 53 to play
  misja -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 2:06 p.m.
  • 53 to play
    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 5:02 p.m.
    • 53 to play
      Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 5:07 p.m.
      • 53 to play
        David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 5:56 p.m.
        • 53 to play
          RealNick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 5:58 p.m.
          • 53 to play
            David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:17 p.m.
            • 53 to play
              Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
              • 53 to play
                David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:38 p.m.
                • 53 to play
                  Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:40 p.m.
                  • 53 to play
                    David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:45 p.m.
            • 53 to play
              David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
              • 53 to play
                Stick -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:37 p.m.
                • 53 to play
                  David Rockwell -- Sunday, 24 October 2010, at 6:44 p.m.
  • 53 to play
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 12:39 a.m.
  • Rollout
    misja -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 6:41 p.m.