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BGonline.org Forums
Shots and Return Shots
Posted By: Paul Weaver In Response To: What gives? (RealNick)
Date: Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 3:08 a.m.
First of all, please note that Blue is an underdog "irregardlessly" of what play he makes.
It appears to me that by making the 3pt, you leave roughly 14 return shots. If you want more insight into this position, then you should perform the exercise of counting how many return shots Blue gets after each of White's hitting numbers.
Another useful exercise for you is this: After Blue makes the 3pt and White misses, count how many of Blue's numbers give him a four-point board next turn. It may be close to half the deck.
Strengthening your board increases your game-winning and gammon-winning chances. It is frequently worthwhile to take a risk to strengthen your board, especially when the alternatives are so pukey.
Magriel told me a long time ago that after you have made the 2pt, the 3pt becomes more desirable than usual. He said that "touching points" are valuable.
As Bob Koca pointed out, the other plays all have serious flaws of their own.
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