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Redouble

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Friday, 29 October 2010, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Redouble (tem_sat)

Black has 34 pips to reach the 6 point and then one more pip to bear something off giving 35 pips. Wastage I remember being about 4 pips. So for racing off gammon about 39 pips for Trice count.

White has worse than an 8 roll position. Note also that rolls like 54 and 53 will bearoff no checkers immediately. I will guess this is halfway between an 8 and a 9 roll position so about 61 EPC.

How often does 39 pips lose to 61 pips on roll? Kleinmann count can help. difference between 39 and (61-4) is 18. I will adjust one pip though because white's race has low volatility. 17^2 = 280 289/(39+57) is about 3 which translates to 11% race chance for gammon. Black can hit also though to save the gammon. That happens a little more than 10%. So I estimate gammons about 10% of the time.

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