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Redouble

Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 30 October 2010, at 2:16 a.m.

In Response To: Redouble (storm)

"White's EPC is very close to an 8-roll using eg. Serret."

That doesn't account though for the 54 and 53 not taking off any checkers 11 taking off none and 22 taking off only 2. As Joe pointed out those rolls are actually good for the gammon chances. I did a bad mistake by overlooking the potential of black being hit and of possibly dancing but that would be an adjustment to blacks count.

"I would think that adding 1 pip to the EPC for the bearing off of a checker is too low."

I added one because the board has no gaps. Thus possibly just one more pip is needed. I did add in estimated wastage of 4 pips in the next step.

"Have you found that Kleinman's D^2/S works well with EPCs for some classes of bearoff or racing positions ? I remember blundering horribly after having just started to use the EPC because of coupling it with D^2/S from the OCM. What is the reason that one should expect it to work ? "

You will need to be careful because that formula is for races with out checkers bunched up low. That will lower the variability and make the racing leader have better chances. I have found that a one pip adjustment is about right. I probably should have converted my EPCs to a pipcount that is typical for the race the formula is meant to be used for by subtracting about 8 pips for each. Why should one expect this to work? Probably for the same reason the D^2/S works for the positions it was originally designed for.

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