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Rollout: Money game 31 to play

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 1 November 2010, at 2:13 p.m.

In Response To: Money game 31 to play (Timothy Chow)

OTB I didn't give much thought to the ace. The rollout indicates that 2/1 is much better than 3/2. In retrospect I can see that 2/1 is better, but the magnitude of the difference still surprises me. I suppose it's possible that some artifact of the rollout is exaggerating the difference.

gnubg	145
tchow	122
Position ID: rG1BMAaKZ3MGAA Match ID: cIkFAAAAAAAA

#		Ply	Move	Equity
•	1	R	11/8 2/1	+0.684
			0.685 0.066 0.001 - 0.315 0.039 0.001 +0.395 +0.684 0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898287948 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	2	R	11/8 3/2	+0.633 ( -0.051)
			0.673 0.057 0.002 - 0.327 0.044 0.001 +0.359 +0.633 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898287948 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	3	R	6/2	+0.613 ( -0.071)
			0.668 0.059 0.001 - 0.332 0.046 0.001 +0.349 +0.613 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898287948 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
	4	R	6/3 2/1	+0.612 ( -0.073)
			0.668 0.059 0.001 - 0.332 0.047 0.001 +0.347 +0.612 0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.006
			Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
			1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 898287948 and quasi-random dice
			Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
			keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
			Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
			Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Money game 31 to play
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 31 October 2010, at 12:40 a.m.
  • Money game 31 to play
    6stones -- Sunday, 31 October 2010, at 8:42 a.m.
    • Money game 31 to play
      6stones -- Sunday, 31 October 2010, at 3:05 p.m.
  • Money game 31 to play
    Stanley E. Richards -- Sunday, 31 October 2010, at 11:06 a.m.
  • Money game 31 to play
    Seth -- Sunday, 31 October 2010, at 1:57 p.m.
  • Money game 31 to play
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 1 November 2010, at 3:39 a.m.
  • Money game 31 to play
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 1 November 2010, at 6:17 a.m.
  • Rollout: Money game 31 to play
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 1 November 2010, at 2:13 p.m.
    • Rollout: Money game 31 to play
      Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 1 November 2010, at 6:49 p.m.