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Rollout of Cube Action After Worst Play, 20/15 11/9

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 4:27 p.m.

In Response To: I Know The WORST Play In This Position (Paul Weaver)

The rollout says it is not a double after your opponent plays 20/15 11/9. However, I have information not available to XG. I know my opponent has made a very bad checker play. I suspect he might make other comparable plays.

Therefore, "irregardlessly" of the XG rollout result, I will double.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 171
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 151
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-a--b-E-DAAAca-A-c-eA---A-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.43% (G: 22.75% B: 2.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.57% (G: 9.86% B: 0.56%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.48% (G: 23.92% B: 2.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.52% (G: 9.66% B: 0.55%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.229
Double:+0.785
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.531
Double/Take:+0.489 (-0.042)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.469)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.028 (+0.503...+0.559)
Confidence Double: ± 0.039 (+0.450...+0.528)
Double Decision confidence: 95.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 52 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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