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Rollout

Posted By: Justin N.
Date: Friday, 5 November 2010, at 5:44 a.m.

In Response To: Post ace-point bearoff (Justin N.)

So I checked a few variations on this position, simply changing the number of checkers chocolate has borne off. I discovered that only when chocolate gets up to 12 checkers off, should blonde be desperate enough to peel one off... but not with 3/off 3/1! Otherwise, it seems the extra spares created by clearing from the rear actually does speed up blondes bearoff sufficiently, at zero immediate shot risk.

Here is the actual position rolled out...

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 29
7 point match
pip: 32
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aDBBBB------------------d-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:7:10
to play 32

1.Rollout15/3 5/2eq: -0.191
Player:
Opponent:		 33.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.197...-0.185)
Duration: 0.1 second
2.Rollout13/1 3/0ffeq: -0.218 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		 33.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.223...-0.213)
Duration: 0.1 second
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

With one extra checker off...

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 28
7 point match
pip: 32
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aDBBBB------------------c-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:7:10
to play 32

1.Rollout15/3 5/2eq: -0.460
Player:
Opponent:		 23.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
76.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.466...-0.454)
Duration: 1.5 seconds
2.Rollout15/0ffeq: -0.474 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		 22.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.479...-0.469)
Duration: 2.6 seconds
3.Rollout13/1 3/0ffeq: -0.483 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		 22.63% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.37% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.488...-0.478)
Duration: 2.3 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

With two extra checkers off...

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 27
7 point match
pip: 32
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=aDBBBB------------------b-:1:1:1:32:0:0:0:7:10
to play 32

1.Rollout15/0ffeq: -0.638
Player:
Opponent:		 15.58% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.42% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.644...-0.632)
Duration: 3.5 seconds
2.Rollout15/3 5/2eq: -0.647 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		 15.27% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
84.73% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.653...-0.641)
Duration: 0.9 second
3.Rollout13/1 3/0ffeq: -0.661 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		 14.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.667...-0.655)
Duration: 2.7 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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