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Let's say chocolate will roll 61

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Friday, 5 November 2010, at 7:11 p.m.

In Response To: Let's say chocolate will roll 61 (Mochy)

And huge swings if Blue's next roll is 4-4 or 3-3:

Blue: 5/3 5/2 ... White 61 bar/18 White 29 Blue 27 Position ID: 724AAOABAAACAA Match ID: EQEHAAAAAAAA # Ply Move Equity • 1 R bar/18 +0.3829 0.7304 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2696 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4608 +0.3829 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0006 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]	Blue: 3/off 3/1 ... White 61 bar/18 White 29 Blue 27 Position ID: 32wAAPAAAAABAA Match ID: EQEHAAAAAAAA # Ply Move Equity • 1 R bar/18 +0.4264 0.7467 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2533 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4933 +0.4264 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0005 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Blue rolls 4-4 White 22 Blue 27 Position ID: DwAgwLsbAAAAAA Match ID: UQkSAAAAAAAA Alert: very lucky roll! ( +0.788) # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 4/off(2) 3/off(2) +0.5121 0.6195 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.3805 0.0000 0.0000 +0.2390 +0.5121 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0010 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]	Blue rolls 4-4 White 22 Blue 27 Position ID: DwAgwDcbAAAAAA Match ID: UQkSAAAAAAAA # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 5/1(2) 4/off(2) -0.3306 0.2975 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.7025 0.0000 0.0000 -0.4049 -0.3306 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0004 0.0005 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
Blue rolls 3-3 White 22 Blue 27 Position ID: DwAgwLsbAAAAAA Match ID: UYkNAAAAAAAA # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 4/1 3/off(3) -0.3319 0.2965 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.7035 0.0000 0.0000 -0.4070 -0.3319 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] 2 R 4/1(2) 3/off(2) -0.3585 ( -0.0267) 0.2851 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.7149 0.0000 0.0000 -0.4299 -0.3585 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0001 0.0000 0.0000 0.0002 0.0004 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]	Blue rolls 33 White 22 Blue 27 Position ID: DwAgwDcbAAAAAA Match ID: UYkNAAAAAAAA Alert: unlucky roll! ( -0.334) # Ply Move Equity • 1 R 5/2(2) 4/1(2) -0.8119 0.0873 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.9127 0.0000 0.0000 -0.8255 -0.8119 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0002 0.0000 0.0000 0.0003 0.0004 Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. 2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 904927572 and quasi-random dice Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16 Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Post ace-point bearoff
  Justin N. -- Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 12:40 a.m.
  • Post ace-point bearoff
    christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 3:46 p.m.
    • Post ace-point bearoff
      Stick -- Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 3:51 p.m.
      • Post ace-point bearoff
        christian munk-christensen -- Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 10:39 p.m.
  • Post ace-point bearoff
    Keene -- Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 5:10 p.m.
  • Post ace-point bearoff
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Thursday, 4 November 2010, at 10:16 p.m.
    • Post ace-point bearoff
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 2:56 a.m.
      • Post ace-point bearoff
        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 4:03 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Justin N. -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 5:44 a.m.
  • Post ace-point bearoff
    Stick -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 11:00 a.m.
    • Post ace-point bearoff
      Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 11:08 a.m.
    • Post ace-point bearoff
      Bob Koca -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 2:46 p.m.
  • Let's say chocolate will roll 61
    Mochy -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
    • Let's say chocolate will roll 61
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 7:11 p.m.
  • another variation
    Chuck Bower -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 6:51 p.m.
    • another variation
      Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 5 November 2010, at 7:39 p.m.