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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 9 November 2010, at 1:34 p.m.

In Response To: Real backgammon 61 to play (Stick)

Here's the rollout for what it's worth. I switched to 4ply/4ply and increased the search space to huge as I think is necessary for any backgame rollout and you still don't know what to make of the results.

Normally when you're in a backgame you look for any good excuse to get out of the backgame as a rule. This position offered two very different routes. Stay committed to the backgame and let your opponent bring the position around while you are hopefully able to build your board or hop out of the backgame and try to go forward. The first choice is easy to envision. You're behind a decent amount of pips only because your opponent's position is so advanced. Normally you'd prefer to be behind by even more pips but ~50 pips will do here, esp. since you would be unstacking heavy points where they needed to be unstacked with the opportunity of getting more timing.

The second option is offers you the chance of going forward, esp. if your opponent enters immediately with a 6X. You hit two checkers in hopes of hitting the third, making offensive points along the way, and perhaps counterpriming your opponent's 3 men in some fashion. By double hitting you also don't totally abandon the thoughts of a backgame, it is possible for a small hitting battle to ensue and you retake the 21pt anchor or simply anchoring up along the way with any deuce is more than acceptable.

I thought it was interesting, so did the bot, and so did all who weighed in with their opinions. My play was and still is hitting both. Falafel agreed with me and I think John O'Hagan also came around to thinking that play was best. Mochy preferred 7* 5. At dmp it should be noted 7*, 5 is clear.

is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 124
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 181
score: 0

is Player 2
XGID=------EaC---aC-abbccbB-B--:1:1:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
to play 61

1.Rollout113/7* 6/5eq: -0.373
Player:
Opponent:		 34.65% (G:5.69% B:0.23%)
65.35% (G:25.59% B:1.13%)		Conf: ± 0.005 (-0.378...-0.368)
Duration: 1 day 04 hours 47 minutes
2.Rollout221/15* 13/12* eq: -0.399 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		 32.71% (G:7.86% B:0.42%)
67.29% (G:24.78% B:1.54%)		Conf: ± 0.006 (-0.405...-0.393)
Duration: 1 day 17 hours 12 minutes
1 7280 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Huge

2 7279 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply
Search interval: Huge

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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