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Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors

Posted By: Flaccus
Date: Friday, 12 November 2010, at 6:45 p.m.

In Response To: Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors (Casper van der Tak)

This position comes from a match that I had just played online a little before I posted the problem. I played the obvious move but I kept thinking about it the rest of the match and couldn't let it go.

According to a 3 ply rollout the 13/9 8/6 play earns almost 0.07 more.

I'm no expert, but after playing it out a few times and thinking about it, this what I can say (I ask for comments on this):

After the best move, in what is almost a 50-50 position, blonde can only hit correctly with 11, 22, 55, and 21. 55 is practically forced, and the other numbers are double hitters. After a double hit, blonde will be praying for a non-return hit, else the gammon losses can skyrocket. Even if Brown dances completely after that, blonde can still struggle to cover the four and clean up all the blots. Brown is never really unhappy (blonde is an underdog after the correct double hitters).

After blonde passes up the hits with the other numbers (if she hits, good luck to her), the worst number that Brown has is 55, and it's not really that bad (it's just that blonde doesn't mind it). Almost all of the other numbers play fine. One can clean up the blots, restore the eight point with small 1s or play with a checker from the midpoint to the nine or eight with 4s and 5s, picking up a blot from the nine or eight at the same time (it's good to know the correct checker plays after 13/9 8/6). It's inevitable to leave one more direct shot at any point (well, pretty much), the trick is to leave it as soon as possible while blonde's front position is weak. Preserving flexibility and putting a spare on six pt is also key.

After 13/9 5/3, brown has below average sixes to play (important), less good rolls to really improve his position, and, in consequence, may take him longer to take care of his midpoint problem.

With timing and playability problems, brown should make a move now to not let his game deteriorate more in the near future.

Messages In This Thread

• Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
  Flaccus -- Thursday, 11 November 2010, at 8:17 p.m.
  • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
    Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 11 November 2010, at 8:24 p.m.
    • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
      Flaccus -- Friday, 12 November 2010, at 4:24 p.m.
      • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
        Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 12 November 2010, at 4:41 p.m.
        • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
          Flaccus -- Friday, 12 November 2010, at 6:45 p.m.
          • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
            Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 12 November 2010, at 7:19 p.m.
            • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
              Flaccus -- Friday, 12 November 2010, at 7:42 p.m.
          • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
            Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 13 November 2010, at 12:10 a.m.
            • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
              Flaccus -- Saturday, 13 November 2010, at 1:15 a.m.
  • Prob.: bearing in against bar and 41 anchors
    ah_clem -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 8:47 p.m.