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Vegas Super Jackpot Quarterfinals: Munitz vs Davis

Posted By: Martaille Jean-Francois
Date: Sunday, 14 November 2010, at 6:47 p.m.

In Response To: Vegas Super Jackpot Quarterfinals: Munitz vs Davis (Rich Munitz)

I tried to use Phil and Stick's lesson on this one :

First the double : 1/ take point for white : 28% (using neil's number). Gammon value a little more than 0,8 for blue. 2/ apply Woolsey's rule : Am I sure this is a take. Definitely not. 3/ Use O'Hagan's rule : at least 25% market losers. enter and run, enter and hit loose without being hit back.

So REDOUBLE.

For the take: In 36 games, here are my estimations: - 16/36; black will dance, white will be able to create a new inner point, diversify his builders or run with any 6. I give him 10 victories. - 20/36; black enter and either run or hit loose, white is under a lot of pressure and must hit back but a hit is not a win so I give him 4 victories (20%) in this variation. So whit will wim 14/36 games. Easy take for money but at this score with such a gammon value, it's probably enought to push into drop territory.

Am I right in the process ?

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