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Crunch Position Cube Action

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 15 November 2010, at 3:52 p.m.

In Response To: Crunch Position Cube Action (Carlo Melzi)

Brown enters a bit over 50% of the time. If so, tan is going to be a serious underdog unless he rolls a 5-4 and picks up the blot. (I think brown would leave it there for outfield control rather than safetying it) The other ~50% of the time when brown dances, tan basically has to roll a 5 or he's in serious trouble, and even if he does he's not out of the woods yet - say tan is 50% to win after dance, 5-X.

There are some other winning scenarios for tan, but I'm not seeing them as very promising once his board crunches. So my back of the envelope calculation of GWC for tan is .5(1/18) + .5(11/36)(.5) = .027 + .076 = .10 or about ten percent. Maybe be generous and give 15% for some other paths to victory.

What's tan's take point for a redouble? (using g11MET, rounded to 2 figures)

take - win -> 3-away 6-away -> equity == .65 take - lose -> 7-away 2-away -> equity == .16 pass -> 7-away 4-away -> equity == .30

Tan is risking .14 to gain .35. This doesn't imply a very deep take point

TP = risk/(risk + gain) = .14/.49 = 29%

Looks like a pretty clear drop to me.

Messages In This Thread

• Crunch Position Cube Action
  Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 1:41 p.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 2:10 p.m.
    • Crunch Position Cube Action
      Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 5:57 p.m.
      • Crunch Position Cube Action
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 6:37 p.m.
        • Crunch Position Cube Action
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 9:25 p.m.
        • Crunch Position Cube Action
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 4:46 a.m.
          • Crunch Position Cube Action
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:41 a.m.
            • Crunch Position Cube Action
              Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:14 a.m.
              • Crunch Position Cube Action
                Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:32 a.m.
                • Crunch Position Cube Action
                  Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:42 a.m.
                  • Crunch Position Cube Action
                    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:57 a.m.
                    • Crunch Position Cube Action
                      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 1:55 a.m.
                      • Crunch Position Cube Action
                        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
                  • 55 checker play rollout
                    Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:37 p.m.
                    • 55 checker play rollout
                      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
                    • 55 checker play rollout
                      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 8:01 a.m.
        • Crunch Position Cube Action
          Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 4:59 a.m.
          • Crunch Position Cube Action
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:40 a.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 2:45 p.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    ah_clem -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
    • Crunch Position Cube Action
      Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 6:00 p.m.
      • Crunch Position Cube Action
        ah_clem -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 8:39 p.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
  • Rollout(s)
    Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 1:58 p.m.
    • Rollout(s)
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:33 p.m.
      • Rollout(s)
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:21 p.m.
        • Rollout(s)
          ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 5:03 p.m.
          • Rollout(s)
            ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 8:28 p.m.
            • Rollout(s)
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 8:40 p.m.
      • Rollout(s)
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 5:25 p.m.
    • Rollout(s)
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:59 p.m.