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RO of the position I posted

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Monday, 15 November 2010, at 7:20 p.m.

In Response To: What was different? (neilkaz)

OTB I initially wasn't sure if Ray had a take here, needing about 21.5% accounting for his joker G wins. After A while I figured it was a take with about 23.5 chances for him, so I cubed and after a couple of minutes he took and later escaped and won the race. I did missplay my 61 right after he took, it seems.

	is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 89 15 point match pip: 100 score: 13 is Player 1
XGID=aC-BBBB-A----A---bbbBcbab-:0:0:1:00:13:10:0:15:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	75.12% (G: 7.42% B: 0.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.88% (G: 3.65% B: 0.13%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.65% (G: 9.41% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.35% (G: 3.29% B: 0.22%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.607
Double:	+1.630
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.835 (-0.042)
Double/Take:	+0.877
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.123)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.005 (+0.830...+0.840)
Confidence Double:	± 0.009 (+0.869...+0.886)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 27 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Here I played 20/13, being too afraid of crashing and not realizing that my bar pt is still very useful.

	is Player 2 score: 10 pip: 89 15 point match pip: 100 score: 13 is Player 1
XGID=aC-BBBB-A----A---bbbBcbab-:1:-1:1:61:13:10:0:15:10
to play 61

1.	Rollout1	13/7 8/7	eq: +0.073
	Player: Opponent: 73.73% (G:9.09% B:0.08%) 26.27% (G:2.47% B:0.11%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.069...+0.077) Duration: 19 minutes 11 seconds
2.	Rollout1	20/13	eq: +0.051 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 74.48% (G:9.78% B:0.19%) 25.52% (G:5.42% B:0.35%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.047...+0.055) Duration: 18 minutes 52 seconds
3.	Rollout1	20/14 13/12	eq: +0.041 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 74.75% (G:10.13% B:0.16%) 25.25% (G:6.60% B:0.87%) Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.037...+0.045) Duration: 14 minutes 37 seconds
4.	XG Roller+	20/14 8/7	eq: -0.018 (-0.092)
	Player: Opponent: 72.97% (G:7.22% B:0.17%) 27.03% (G:6.45% B:0.42%)
5.	XG Roller+	13/6	eq: -0.025 (-0.098)
	Player: Opponent: 71.38% (G:7.99% B:0.14%) 28.62% (G:3.55% B:0.09%)
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Critical AtS cube from Super JP semis
  neilkaz -- Sunday, 14 November 2010, at 8:51 p.m.
  • Critical AtS cube from Super JP semis
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 14 November 2010, at 9:25 p.m.
  • Critical AtS cube from Super JP semis
    higonefive -- Sunday, 14 November 2010, at 9:43 p.m.
  • Critical AtS cube from Super JP semis
    Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 14 November 2010, at 10:41 p.m.
  • Critical AtS cube from Super JP semis
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 5:30 a.m.
  • Critical AtS cube from Super JP semis
    mochy -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 9:04 a.m.
    • What was different?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 6:10 p.m.
      • RO of the position I posted
        neilkaz -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 7:20 p.m.
      • What was different?
        John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:38 a.m.
        • Thx..RO of that position (noting that I think you're correct)
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:58 a.m.